This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 52% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 52% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points shortwon 40%, needs 52% | 15.4rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 650%needs 52% to break even | 22%–78% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% | 13.5rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 650%needs 52% to break even | 22%–78% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% | 13.5rushing yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 52% to break even | 22%–78% | 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% | 13.5rushing yards |
| Every game | 3 of 650% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: PIT allows 86.2 rushing yards a game to running backs, the 16th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 89.6). How PIT defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 22%–78% |
| 2 points shortwon 50%, needs 52% |
| 13.5rushing yards |
| 5 |
| +4.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 4 | +5.5 | Won |
| -126at Kalshi |
| 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 56% to break even |
| -17.1Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -111at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -113at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +146at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 41% to break even | -15.2Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +190at BetOnline | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 34% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +550at BetMGM |
| 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 15% to break even |
| -8.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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