This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 15% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 0 of 50%needs 15% to break even | 0%–35% | 15 points shortwon 0%, needs 15% |
| Last 10 games | 0 of 60%needs 15% to break even | 0%–31% | 15 points shortwon 0%, needs 15% |
| Last 15 games | 0 of 60%needs 15% to break even | 0%–31% | 15 points shortwon 0%, needs 15% |
| This season | 0 of 60%needs 15% to break even | 0%–31% | 15 points shortwon 0%, needs 15% |
| Every game | 0 of 60%needs 15% to break even | 0%–31% | 15 points shortwon 0%, needs 15% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Tonight: PIT allows 0.7 touchdowns a game to running backs, the 9th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 0.9): a tough matchup for this bet. How PIT defends running backs
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every CJ Donaldson game, newest first: whether Donaldson scored a touchdown.
This player's other props in the game.
| Wk 1 | No TD | Lost |
| +146at Kalshi |
| 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 41% to break even |
| -15.2Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -111at BetMGM | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -113at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +190at BetOnline | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 34% to break even | -16.5Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -126at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 56% to break even | -17.1Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -107at Kalshi | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 52% to break even | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -111at DraftKings | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 53% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -199at Kalshi | 4 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped67%needs 67% to break even | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 rushing yardsCJ Donaldson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -118at BetRivers | 3 of 6· last 10 games, 4 skipped50%needs 54% to break even | -19.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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