This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 36% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 36% to break even | 14%–73% | 4 points betterwon 40%, needs 36% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 36% to break even | 13%–56% | 6 points shortwon 30%, needs 36% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 36% to break even | 17%–54% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 36% to break even | 12%–65% | 2 points shortwon 33%, needs 36% |
| Last season | 8 of 1747%needs 36% to break even | 29%–66% | 11 points betterwon 47%, needs 36% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 4.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 4.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsJuwan Johnson |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson |
| 10 of 2343%needs 36% to break even |
| 28%–60% |
| 8 points betterwon 43%, needs 36% |
| 0 |
| -4.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 2 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 6 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 8 | +3.5 | Won |
| +198at Kalshi |
| 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 34% to break even |
| -24.9Not beating its price |
| Under 3.5 receptionsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +100at BetMGM | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +134at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even |
| -4.3Not beating its price |
| Over 32.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -111at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -113at BetRivers | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -8.3Not beating its price |
| Over 31.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -120at BetMGM | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 55% to break even | -9.5Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -191at Kalshi | 15 of 17· last season88%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.7Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +152at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 40% to break even | -26.2Not beating its price |
| Under 31.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -111at BetMGM | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.3Not beating its price |
| Under 32.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.6Not beating its price |
| Under 34.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -118at BetRivers | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.5Not beating its price |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -161at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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