This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 43% to break even | 27%–86% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 43% to break even | 44%–87% | 27 points betterwon 70%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 43% to break even | 39%–78% | 17 points betterwon 60%, needs 43% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 43% to break even | 35%–88% | 24 points betterwon 67%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 43% to break even | 39%–76% | 16 points betterwon 59%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 14 of 2361%needs 43% to break even | 44%–76% | 18 points betterwon 61%, needs 43% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 39.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 39.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -39.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 16 | -23.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 59 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 53 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 66 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 54 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 61 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 95 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 89 | +49.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 30 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 38 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 39 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 46 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 92 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 31 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 53 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 79 | +39.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 15 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 17 | -22.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 28 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 51 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 49 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 76 | +36.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +146at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 41% to break even | -27.0Not beating its price | ||
| Under 31.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -111at BetMGM | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 32.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 34.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -118at BetRivers | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -33.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -161at Kalshi | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 3.5 receptionsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -112at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even | -6.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 4.5 receptionsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.9Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 35% to break even | -25.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 3.5 receptionsJuwan Johnson · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +100at BetMGM | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.