This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 35% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 35% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 35% to break even | 7%–46% | 15 points shortwon 20%, needs 35% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 35% to break even | 22%–61% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 35% to break even | 14%–73% | 5 points betterwon 40%, needs 35% |
| Last season | 4 of 1136%needs 35% to break even | 18%–61% | 2 points betterwon 36%, needs 35% |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against over 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 receptionsAlvin Kamara |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara |
| Every game | 6 of 1638%needs 35% to break even | 21%–58% | 3 points betterwon 38%, needs 35% |
| 5 |
| +1.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 12 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 5 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 4 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -1.5 | Lost |
| +103at BetOnline |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 49% to break even |
| -15.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +119at Kalshi |
| 9 of 11· last season82%needs 46% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -0.6Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 11· last season73%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -1.7Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -137at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 58% to break even | -4.5Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -109at DraftKings | 9 of 11· last season82%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.6Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -111at BetMGM | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +114at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 47% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Under 11.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -106at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 51% to break even | -19.2Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -137at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 58% to break even | -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -117at BetRivers | 7 of 11· last season64%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.6Not beating its price |
| Over 12.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | +198at Kalshi | 0 of 5· last 5 games0%needs 34% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ET | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 52% to break even | -30.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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