This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 46% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 46% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 46% to break even | 28%–67% | 1 points betterwon 47%, needs 46% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 46% to break even | 14%–73% | 6 points shortwon 40%, needs 46% |
| Last season | 5 of 1145%needs 46% to break even | 24%–68% | evenwon 45%, needs 46% |
| Every game |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 12.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara |
| 26%–64% |
| 2 points shortwon 44%, needs 46% |
| 35 |
| +20.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 5 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 7 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 12 | 4 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 32 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 3 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 24 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 1 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 45 | +30.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 28 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 14 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 21 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost |
| -111at BetMGM |
| 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even |
| -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -168at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 63% to break even | -23.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -142at Kalshi |
| 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 59% to break even |
| -5.2Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -108at DraftKings | 9 of 11· last season82%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -5.4Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -114at FanDuel | 9 of 11· last season82%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -6.4Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -120at BetMGM | 9 of 11· last season82%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.4Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +105at Bovada | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 49% to break even | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -118at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 54% to break even | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | +119at Kalshi | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 46% to break even | -28.7Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 52% to break even | -30.3Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -111at BetOnline | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 53% to break even | -30.5Not beating its price |
| Under 17.5 rushing yardsAlvin Kamara · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETListed questionable | -116at DraftKings | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 54% to break even | -31.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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