This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 53% to break even | 8%–41% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 4 of 1625%needs 53% to break even | 12%–45% | 28 points shortwon 25%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight PIT plays on the road, as the favorite, after a win, against NO. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 56.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 56.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsDK Metcalf |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsDK Metcalf · |
| 15%–45% |
| 26 points shortwon 27%, needs 53% |
| 93 |
| +36.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 5 | 12 | -44.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 115 | +58.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 31 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 27 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 40 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 42 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 42 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 55 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 148 | +91.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 32 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 22 | -34.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 49 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 35 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 6 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 | 55 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 50 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 95 | +38.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 126 | +69.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 32 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 20 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 83 | +26.5 | Won |
| +198at Kalshi |
| 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 34% to break even |
| -9.6Not beating its price |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +129at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 44% to break even | -4.9Not beating its price |
| Under 56.5 receiving yardsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -114at BetOnline | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -6.5Not beating its price |
| Under 58.5 receiving yardsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -111at DraftKings | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 53% to break even | -5.9Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -121at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 55% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 receiving yardsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -191at Kalshi | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 66% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +107at BetOnline |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 48% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -5.9Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +173at Kalshi | 7 of 16· last season44%needs 37% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | +152at Kalshi | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 40% to break even | -29.0Not beating its price |
| Over 4.5 receptionsDK Metcalf · Sun, Oct 25, 9:30 AM ETWithout Skowronek (WR) | -133at DraftKings | 5 of 15· last 15 games33%needs 57% to break even | -34.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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