This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 47% to break even | 27%–86% | 13 points betterwon 60%, needs 47% | 1.2field goals made |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 47% to break even | 44%–87% | 23 points betterwon 70%, needs 47% | 1.2field goals made |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 47% to break even | 52%–87% | 26 points betterwon 73%, needs 47% | 1.1field goals made |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 47% to break even | 35%–88% | 19 points betterwon 67%, needs 47% | 1.2field goals made |
Tonight NO plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against PIT. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 8 of 12 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Field goals made in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Field goals made | Beat 1.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Last season |
| 11 of 1765%needs 47% to break even |
| 45%–81% |
| 17 points betterwon 65%, needs 47% |
| 1.3field goals made |
| Every game | 15 of 2365%needs 47% to break even | 48%–79% | 18 points betterwon 65%, needs 47% | 1.3field goals made |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 4 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -120at Fanatics |
| 6 of 17· last season35%needs 55% to break even4 of 12 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -33.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +105at Fanatics |
| 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 49% to break even8 of 12 at home |
| -4.8Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 extra points madeDaniel Carlson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +140at Fanatics | 10 of 17· last season59%needs 42% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Under 7.5 kicking pointsDaniel Carlson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -140at DraftKings | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 58% to break even8 of 12 at home | -12.6Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 extra points madeDaniel Carlson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -145at BetMGM | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 59% to break even6 of 12 at home | Record is this season's | -25.6Not beating its price |
| Over 7.5 kicking pointsDaniel Carlson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | +110at DraftKings | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 48% to break even4 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -28.2Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 kicking pointsDaniel Carlson · Tomorrow 9:30 AM ET | -140at Fanatics | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 58% to break even4 of 12 at home | Record is last season's | -37.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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