This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 43% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 43% to break even | 5%–56% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 43% to break even | 7%–46% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 43% to break even | 8%–41% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 43% to break even | 4%–50% | 27 points shortwon 17%, needs 43% |
| Last season | 4 of 1921%needs 43% to break even | 10%–40% | 22 points shortwon 21%, needs 43% |
| Every game | 5 of 2520%needs 43% to break even | 10%–36% | 23 points shortwon 20%, needs 43% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against hou -13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 37.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 3 |
| -10.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 11 | 23 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 4 | -4 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | -2 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | -14 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | -5 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 18 | -12 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 24 | +10.5 | Won |
| Jan 4 | 8 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Dec 27 | 4 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Dec 21 | 2 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Dec 14 | 20 | +6.5 | Won |
| Dec 7 | 10 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Nov 30 | 4 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 20 | 4 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Nov 16 | 3 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Nov 9 | 7 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Nov 2 | -3 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Oct 26 | 11 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Oct 20 | -8 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Oct 5 | 34 | +20.5 | Won |
| Sep 28 | 26 | +12.5 | Won |
| Sep 21 | -7 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Sep 15 | -1 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Sep 7 | -5 | -18.5 | Lost |
| 9 of 19· last season47%needs 36% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.2Not beating its price |
| Under 38.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +155at Polymarket | 9 of 19· last season47%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -10.2Not beating its price |
| Under 26.5 team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Under 6.5 1st quarter totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 37% to break even | -11.1Not beating its price |
| Under 40.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 10 of 19· last season53%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.7Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 1st half team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +103at Polymarket | 13 of 19· last season68%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 1st half totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -123at Polymarket | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even | -14.1Not beating its price |
| Under 16.5 1st half team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 15 of 19· last season79%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 1st half totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 12 of 19· last season63%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.6Not beating its price |
| Under 41.5 game total, HOU gamesHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 11 of 19· last season58%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalHouston Texans · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -119at Polymarket | 14 of 19· last season74%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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