This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 47% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 47% to break even | 27%–86% | 13 points betterwon 60%, needs 47% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 47% to break even | 54%–93% | 33 points betterwon 80%, needs 47% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 47% to break even | 46%–83% | 20 points betterwon 67%, needs 47% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 47% to break even | 35%–88% | 20 points betterwon 67%, needs 47% |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 47% to break even | 34%–71% | 6 points betterwon 53%, needs 47% |
| Every game | 13 of 2357%needs 47% to break even | 40%–72% | 10 points betterwon 57%, needs 47% |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
4Q margin in each game against nyg 4q +0.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 4Q margin | Beat -0.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 10 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 6 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 9 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 21 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 4 | 3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 28 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Dec 1 | 5 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Nov 23 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 16 | -1 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | -11 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 2 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 19 | -20 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 9 | 7 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 28 | 0 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | -3 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 14 | 1 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | -7 | -6.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.