This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 54% to break even | 5%–56% | 34 points shortwon 20%, needs 54% | 41.8receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 1 of 1010%needs 54% to break even | 2%–35% | 44 points shortwon 10%, needs 54% | 41.1receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 54% to break even | 13%–48% | 27 points shortwon 27%, needs 54% | 31.3receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 54% to break even | 4%–50% | 37 points shortwon 17%, needs 54% | 40.2receiving yards |
| Last season | 3 of 1817%needs 54% to break even | 7%–35% | 37 points shortwon 17%, needs 54% | 27.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 4 of 2417%needs 54% to break even | 8%–32% | 37 points shortwon 17%, needs 54% | 30.6receiving yards |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 11 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 132.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 6th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How NYG defends wide receivers
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 12.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 12.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 10 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 65 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 46 | -33.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 51 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 37 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 32 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 44 | -31.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 84 | -71.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 21 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 4 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 39 | -26.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 0 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 42 | -29.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 30 | -17.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 69 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 13 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 18 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 17 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 16 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 29 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 30 | -17.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +164at DraftKings | 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 38% to break even8 of 11 at home | 20.7Very strong | ||
| Scores a TDXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +700at Fanatics | 2 of 18· last season11%needs 13% to break even1 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -9.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 receptionsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 18· last season28%needs 64% to break even3 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -47.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.