This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 33% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 33% to break even | 44%–95% | 47 points betterwon 80%, needs 33% | 41.8receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 33% to break even | 44%–87% | 37 points betterwon 70%, needs 33% | 41.1receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 33% to break even | 33%–72% | 20 points betterwon 53%, needs 33% | 31.3receiving yards |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 33% to break even | 50%–96% | 50 points betterwon 83%, needs 33% | 40.2receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 11 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 132.3 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 6th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 24.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 8 of 1844%needs 33% to break even |
| 27%–63% |
| 11 points betterwon 44%, needs 33% |
| 27.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 13 of 2454%needs 33% to break even | 38%–70% | 21 points betterwon 54%, needs 33% | 30.6receiving yards |
| Opponent |
|---|
| Receiving yards |
|---|
| Beat 24.5 by |
|---|
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 10 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 65 | +40.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 46 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 51 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 37 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 32 | +7.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 44 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 84 | +59.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 21 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 4 | -20.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 16 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 0 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 39 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 0 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 42 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 30 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 69 | +44.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 13 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 18 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 17 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 16 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 29 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 30 | +5.5 | Won | |
| +134at Kalshi |
| 3 of 15· last 15 games20%needs 43% to break even2 of 11 at home |
| -32.6Not beating its price |
| Under 12.5 receiving yardsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -117at BetRivers | 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 54% to break even2 of 11 at home | -39.5Not beating its price |
| Under 13.5 receiving yardsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -111at BetOnline | 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 53% to break even2 of 11 at home | -37.7Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -116at DraftKings | 4 of 15· last 15 games27%needs 54% to break even2 of 11 at home | -38.6Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -168at Kalshi | 8 of 18· last season44%needs 63% to break even4 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -41.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +164at DraftKings |
| 10 of 10· last 10 games100%needs 38% to break even8 of 11 at home |
| 20.7Very strong |
| Scores a TDXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +756at Kalshi | 2 of 18· last season11%needs 12% to break even1 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsXavier Hutchinson · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 18· last season28%needs 64% to break even3 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -47.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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