This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 53% to break even | 14%–73% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 10.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 53% to break even | 19%–65% | 13 points shortwon 40%, needs 53% | 13.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 53% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 53% | 18.1receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 53% to break even | 12%–65% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 8.7receiving yards |
| Last season | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% | 19.2receiving yards |
| Every game | 10 of 2148%needs 53% to break even | 31%–65% | 6 points shortwon 48%, needs 53% | 16.2receiving yards |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 10 on the road. Tonight: HOU allows 22.2 receiving yards a game to running backs, the 6th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 31.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How HOU defends running backs
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 8.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 8.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 27 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 25 | +16.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 56 | +47.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | -5 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 27 | +18.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | -3 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 68 | +59.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 51 | +42.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 19 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 0 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 36 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 11 | +2.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 8.5 receiving yardsTyrone Tracy Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -16.4Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsTyrone Tracy Jr. · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 on the road | -17.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.