This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 28% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 28% to break even | 14%–73% | 12 points betterwon 40%, needs 28% | 61receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 28% to break even | 13%–56% | 2 points betterwon 30%, needs 28% | 46.7receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 4 of 1527%needs 28% to break even | 13%–48% | 2 points shortwon 27%, needs 28% | 44.3receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 28% to break even | 22%–78% | 22 points betterwon 50%, needs 28% | 63.8receiving yards |
| Last season | 1 of 128%needs 28% to break even | 2%–30% | 20 points shortwon 8%, needs 28% | 25.6receiving yards |
| Every game | 4 of 1822%needs 28% to break even | 10%–41% | 6 points shortwon 22%, needs 28% | 38.3receiving yards |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 1 of 7 on the road. Tonight: HOU allows 46.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 14th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2). How HOU defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 69.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 69.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 99 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 94 | +24.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 66 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 13 | -56.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 33 | -36.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 78 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 32 | -37.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 27 | -42.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 0 | -69.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 25 | -44.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 95 | +25.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 10 | -59.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 15 | -54.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 17 | -52.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 60 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 8 | -61.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 6 | -63.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 12 | -57.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 39% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -3.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 48.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -117at BetRivers | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 54% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -15.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 52% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 50.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 52.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -14.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 64% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 11 of 12· last season92%needs 41% to break even5 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -6.6Not beating its price | |
| Under 5.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -112at FanDuel | 12 of 12· last season100%needs 53% to break even6 of 7 on the road | Record is last season's | -8.2Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +260at BetRivers | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 28% to break even1 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -11.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 6.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +188at BetRivers | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 35% to break even1 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -18.8Not beating its price | |
| Over 5.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +100at BetMGM | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 50% to break even1 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -25.5Not beating its price | |
| Over 4.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 66% to break even2 of 7 on the road | Record is this season's | -30.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.