This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 54% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 54% to break even | 35%–81% | 6 points betterwon 60%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 54% to break even | 52%–87% | 19 points betterwon 73%, needs 54% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 54% to break even | 12%–65% | 21 points shortwon 33%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 12 of 12100%needs 54% to break even | 82%–100% | 46 points betterwon 100%, needs 54% |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 5.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 4.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 49.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely |
| Every game |
| 14 of 1878%needs 54% to break even |
| 59%–90% |
| 23 points betterwon 78%, needs 54% |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 7 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 8 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 2 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 4 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 5 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 3 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 2 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +4.5 | Won |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 67% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -31.1Not beating its price |
| Over 5.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +102at FanDuel | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 50% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.1Not beating its price |
| Over 6.5 receptionsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 36% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -112at DraftKings |
| 10 of 12· last season83%needs 53% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -14.4Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 59.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 40% to break even | Record is this season's | -14.8Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 51% to break even | Record is this season's | -23.4Not beating its price |
| Under 59.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -199at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 67% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.2Not beating its price |
| Over 47.5 receiving yardsIsaiah Likely · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -25.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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