This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 51% to break even | 5%–56% | 31 points shortwon 20%, needs 51% | 11.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 51% to break even | 19%–65% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 10.6receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1346%needs 51% to break even | 26%–68% | 5 points shortwon 46%, needs 51% | 10.1receiving yards |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 51% to break even | 12%–65% | 18 points shortwon 33%, needs 51% | 12receiving yards |
| Last season | 4 of 757%needs 51% to break even | 29%–81% | 6 points betterwon 57%, needs 51% | 8.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 6 of 1346%needs 51% to break even | 26%–68% | 5 points shortwon 46%, needs 51% | 10.1receiving yards |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 44.8 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends tight ends
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 8.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 receiving yardsFoster Moreau · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -115at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 at home | -21.5Not beating its price | ||
| Under 8.5 receiving yardsFoster Moreau · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -114at FanDuel | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 at home | -15.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsFoster Moreau · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -120at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 55% to break even5 of 7 at home | -13.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDFoster Moreau · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +650at BetMGM | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 13% to break even0 of 7 at home | -4.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 receptionsFoster Moreau · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +148at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 40% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is this season's | -5.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 1.5 receptionsFoster Moreau · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -154at Kalshi | 5 of 7· last season71%needs 61% to break even5 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -28.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.