This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 63% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 63% to break even | 5%–56% | 43 points shortwon 20%, needs 63% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 63% to break even | 19%–65% | 23 points shortwon 40%, needs 63% |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1346%needs 63% to break even | 26%–68% | 17 points shortwon 46%, needs 63% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 63% to break even | 4%–50% | 46 points shortwon 17%, needs 63% |
| Last season | 5 of 771%needs 63% to break even | 41%–90% | 9 points betterwon 71%, needs 63% |
| Every game | 6 of 1346%needs 63% to break even | 26%–68% | 17 points shortwon 46%, needs 63% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsFoster Moreau · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETSchultz questionable: next up at TE | +137at Polymarket | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 42% to break even | Record is this season's | -7.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 9.5 receiving yardsFoster Moreau · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETSchultz questionable: next up at TE | -131at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 57% to break even | -15.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsFoster Moreau · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETSchultz questionable: next up at TE | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped31%needs 37% to break even | -18.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 9.5 receiving yardsFoster Moreau · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETSchultz questionable: next up at TE | +101at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last 15 games, 2 skipped38%needs 50% to break even | -24.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.