This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 16.4receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 53% to break even | 13%–56% | 23 points shortwon 30%, needs 53% | 22.3receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 53% to break even | 17%–54% | 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% | 25.3receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 53% to break even | 22%–78% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% | 18.2receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight NYG plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against HOU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 11 on the road. Tonight: HOU allows 185.7 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 3rd most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3): a tough matchup for this bet. How HOU defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 19.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 17%–54% |
| 20 points shortwon 33%, needs 53% |
| 29.5receiving yards |
| Every game | 8 of 2138%needs 53% to break even | 23%–56% | 15 points shortwon 38%, needs 53% | 26.3receiving yards |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 14 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 0 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 48 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 35 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 24 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 35 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 6 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 25 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 74 | -54.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 34 | -14.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 10 | 17 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 11 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 68 | -48.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 15 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 44 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 20 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| -195at DraftKings |
| 14 of 15· last season93%needs 66% to break even11 of 11 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.1Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -140at DraftKings | 13 of 15· last season87%needs 58% to break even10 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 53% to break even9 of 11 on the road | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -116at DraftKings | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 54% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -14.4Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +108at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 48% to break even8 of 11 on the road | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +136at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 42% to break even6 of 11 on the road | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +136at BetOnline | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 42% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -23.7Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +185at BetRivers | 6 of 15· last season40%needs 35% to break even5 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -17.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +119at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 46% to break even9 of 11 on the road |
| -1.6Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +945at Kalshi | 1 of 15· last 15 games7%needs 10% to break even1 of 11 on the road | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsDarnell Mooney · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -139at BetOnline | 5 of 15· last season33%needs 58% to break even2 of 11 on the road | Record is last season's | -36.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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