This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 49% to break even | 5%–56% | 29 points shortwon 20%, needs 49% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 49% to break even | 19%–65% | 9 points shortwon 40%, needs 49% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 49% to break even | 28%–67% | 2 points shortwon 47%, needs 49% |
| This season | 1 of 617%needs 49% to break even | 4%–50% | 32 points shortwon 17%, needs 49% |
| Last season | 12 of 1675%needs 49% to break even | 55%–88% | 26 points betterwon 75%, needs 49% |
| Every game |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Passing yards in each game against under 249.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 249.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |
| 42%–74% |
| 10 points betterwon 59%, needs 49% |
| 312 |
| -62.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 5 | 261 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 347 | -97.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 167 | +82.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 353 | -103.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 274 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 212 | +37.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 250 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 169 | +80.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | 244 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 187 | +62.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 260 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 203 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 276 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 79 | +170.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 318 | -68.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 229 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 244 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 233 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 204 | +45.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 207 | +42.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 188 | +61.5 | Won |
| -137at Kalshi |
| 5 of 6· this season83%needs 58% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -20.1Not beating its price |
| Over 254.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -114at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -19.5Not beating its price |
| Over 255.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -110at Fanatics | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 256.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -110at DraftKings | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -18.8Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +134at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 43% to break even | -22.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +140at Kalshi |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 42% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -4.0Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | -12.5Not beating its price |
| Over 8.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -111at BetMGM | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.4Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -112at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.6Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -120at BetRivers | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 55% to break even | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 33.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -107at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 52% to break even | Record is this season's | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 completionsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 53% to break even | Record is this season's | -20.1Not beating its price |
| Under 33.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -116at Kalshi | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 54% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.7Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 completionsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -112at Kalshi | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 53% to break even | -21.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +166at Kalshi | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 38% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.1Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 passing TDsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | +198at Kalshi | 1 of 5· last 5 games20%needs 34% to break even | -24.2Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ETMontgomery doubtful (RB) | -112at BetRivers | 9 of 16· last season56%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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