This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 38% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 38% to break even | 5%–56% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% | 36.2pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 38% to break even | 13%–56% | 8 points shortwon 30%, needs 38% | 34.9pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 3 of 1520%needs 38% to break even | 8%–41% | 18 points shortwon 20%, needs 38% | 32.6pass attempts |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 38% to break even | 12%–65% | 5 points shortwon 33%, needs 38% | 36.5pass attempts |
| Last season | 4 of 1625% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 10 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 31.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 35.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 35.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 12%–45% |
| 13 points shortwon 25%, needs 38% |
| 31.4pass attempts |
| Every game | 6 of 2227%needs 38% to break even | 15%–45% | 11 points shortwon 27%, needs 38% | 32.8pass attempts |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 34 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 34 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 31 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 55 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 38 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 47 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 32 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 23 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 35 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 29 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 31 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 35 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 10 | -25.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 39 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 49 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 28 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 24 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 27 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| +105at BetMGM |
| 10 of 16· last season63%needs 49% to break even6 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.7Not beating its price |
| Under 33.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -121at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 55% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +145at Fanatics |
| 11 of 16· last season69%needs 41% to break even5 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.4Not beating its price |
| Scores a TDC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +625at Kalshi | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 14% to break even1 of 10 at home | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 299.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +320at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 24% to break even3 of 10 at home | -8.8Not beating its price |
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -124at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -12.2Not beating its price |
| Over 23.5 completionsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +180at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +280at FanDuel | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 26% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price |
| Over 289.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +210at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 32% to break even3 of 10 at home | -15.6Not beating its price |
| Over 249.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -110at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -15.7Not beating its price |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -109at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price |
| Under 274.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -168at Kalshi | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 63% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price |
| Under 268.5 pass + rush yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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