This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 49% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 49% to break even | 5%–56% | 29 points shortwon 20%, needs 49% | 36.2pass attempts |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 49% to break even | 13%–56% | 19 points shortwon 30%, needs 49% | 34.9pass attempts |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 49% to break even | 17%–54% | 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 49% | 32.6pass attempts |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 49% to break even | 12%–65% | 15 points shortwon 33%, needs 49% | 36.5pass attempts |
| Last season | 6 of 1638%needs 49% to break even | 21%–58% | 11 points shortwon 38%, needs 49% | 31.4pass attempts |
| Every game | 8 of 2236%needs 49% to break even | 22%–54% | 12 points shortwon 36%, needs 49% | 32.8pass attempts |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 10 at home. Tonight: NYG allows 31.8 pass attempts a game to quarterbacks, the 11th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 33.7): a tough matchup for this bet. How NYG defends quarterbacks
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Pass attempts in each game against over 34.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Pass attempts | Beat 34.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 34 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 34 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 31 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 55 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 38 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 47 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 32 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 23 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 28 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 35 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 29 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 31 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 35 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 10 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 39 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 49 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 28 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 38 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 24 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 27 | -7.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 32.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +105at BetMGM | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 49% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.7Not beating its price | |
| Under 33.5 pass attemptsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -121at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 55% to break even6 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -22.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 passing TDsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +145at Fanatics | 11 of 16· last season69%needs 41% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -3.4Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +625at Kalshi | 2 of 10· last 10 games20%needs 14% to break even1 of 10 at home | -7.9Not beating its price | ||
| Over 299.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +320at BetRivers | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 24% to break even3 of 10 at home | -8.8Not beating its price | ||
| Under 0.5 interceptions thrownC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -124at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 55% to break even9 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -12.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 23.5 completionsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +180at BetRivers | 4 of 6· this season67%needs 36% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -14.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +189at Kalshi | 8 of 16· last season50%needs 35% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +280at FanDuel | 6 of 16· last season38%needs 26% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -15.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 289.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | +210at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 32% to break even3 of 10 at home | -15.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 249.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -110at BetRivers | 5 of 6· this season83%needs 52% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is this season's | -15.7Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -109at DraftKings | 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 274.5 passing yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -168at Kalshi | 14 of 16· last season88%needs 63% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.1Not beating its price | |
| Under 268.5 pass + rush yardsC.J. Stroud · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ETWithout Montgomery (RB) | -113at DraftKings | 12 of 16· last season75%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -16.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.