This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 39% to break even | 14%–73% | 1 points betterwon 40%, needs 39% | 2.4field goals made |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 39% to break even | 19%–65% | 1 points betterwon 40%, needs 39% | 2.5field goals made |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 39% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points betterwon 47%, needs 39% | 2.6field goals made |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 39% to break even | 12%–65% | 6 points shortwon 33%, needs 39% | 2.2field goals made |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 39% to break even | 34%–71% | 14 points betterwon 53%, needs 39% | 2.8field goals made |
| Every game | 11 of 2348%needs 39% to break even | 32%–64% | 9 points betterwon 48%, needs 39% | 2.7field goals made |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 7 of 11 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Field goals made in each game against over 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Field goals made | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 19 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 14 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 5 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 4 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 1 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 field goals madeKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -199at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 67% to break even4 of 11 at home | -28.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.