This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 56% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 56% to break even | 14%–73% | 16 points shortwon 40%, needs 56% | 9.4kicking points |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 56% to break even | 27%–73% | 6 points shortwon 50%, needs 56% | 9.8kicking points |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 56% to break even | 28%–67% | 9 points shortwon 47%, needs 56% | 10.1kicking points |
| This season | 3 of 650%needs 56% to break even | 22%–78% | 6 points shortwon 50%, needs 56% | 9kicking points |
| Last season | 9 of 1753%needs 56% to break even | 34%–71% | 3 points shortwon 53%, needs 56% | 10.4kicking points |
| Every game | 12 of 2352%needs 56% to break even | 36%–68% | 4 points shortwon 52%, needs 56% | 10kicking points |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 11 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Kicking points in each game against under 9.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Kicking points | Beat 9.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 12 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 5 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 20 | 10 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 19 | 6 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 18 | 20 | -10.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 14 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 12 | 11 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 15 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 8 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 14 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 8 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 4 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 7 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 9 | +0.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 kicking pointsKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at Fanatics | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 52% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 kicking pointsKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -101at DraftKings | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 50% to break even7 of 11 at home | -18.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 2.5 extra points madeKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +115at Fanatics | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 47% to break even8 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -5.0Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 field goals madeKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +155at DraftKings | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 39% to break even7 of 11 at home | Record is last season's | -13.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 field goals madeKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -199at DraftKings | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 67% to break even4 of 11 at home | -28.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 2.5 extra points madeKa'imi Fairbairn · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -145at BetMGM | 3 of 6· this season50%needs 59% to break even3 of 11 at home | Record is this season's | -35.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.