This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 81% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 81% to break even | 14%–73% | 41 points shortwon 40%, needs 81% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 81% to break even | 27%–73% | 31 points shortwon 50%, needs 81% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 81% to break even | 46%–83% | 14 points shortwon 67%, needs 81% |
| This season | 2 of 633%needs 81% to break even | 12%–65% | 48 points shortwon 33%, needs 81% |
| Last season | 13 of 1968%needs 81% to break even | 50%–83% | 13 points shortwon 68%, needs 81% |
| Every game | 15 of 2560%needs 81% to break even | 44%–74% | 21 points shortwon 60%, needs 81% |
Tonight HOU plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against NYG. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against hou to win, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat 0 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Oct 11 | 23 | +23 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | -4 | -4 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -2 | -2 | Lost | |
| Sep 20 | -14 | -14 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 18 | -12 | -12 | Lost | |
| Jan 12 | 24 | +24 | Won | |
| Jan 4 | 8 | +8 | Won | |
| Dec 27 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 2 | +2 | Won | |
| Dec 14 | 20 | +20 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | 10 | +10 | Won | |
| Nov 30 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 20 | 4 | +4 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | 3 | +3 | Won | |
| Nov 9 | 7 | +7 | Won | |
| Nov 2 | -3 | -3 | Lost | |
| Oct 26 | 11 | +11 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | -8 | -8 | Lost | |
| Oct 5 | 34 | +34 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 26 | +26 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | -7 | -7 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | -1 | -1 | Lost | |
| Sep 7 | -5 | -5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.