This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 67% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 67% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 67% to break even | 44%–87% | 3 points betterwon 70%, needs 67% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 67% to break even | 39%–78% | 7 points shortwon 60%, needs 67% |
| This season | 4 of 667%needs 67% to break even | 35%–88% | evenwon 67%, needs 67% |
| Last season | 11 of 1765%needs 67% to break even | 45%–81% | 2 points shortwon 65%, needs 67% |
| Every game | 15 of 2365%needs 67% to break even | 48%–79% | 1 points shortwon 65%, needs 67% |
Tonight TB plays on the road, as the underdog, after a loss, against CAR. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
2H margin in each game against tb 2h +3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 2H margin | Beat -3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 18 | -17 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 8 | 11 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Oct 4 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 27 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 13 | 8 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Jan 3 | -4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Dec 28 | 7 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Dec 21 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 11 | 0 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Dec 7 | -7 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 30 | -4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 23 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Nov 16 | -11 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 9 | -1 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 26 | 16 | +19.5 | Won | |
| Oct 20 | -4 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 12 | 7 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Oct 5 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 28 | 12 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Sep 21 | -12 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 15 | -3 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Sep 7 | 3 | +6.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.