This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 65% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 5 of 5100%needs 65% to break even | 65%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% | 5rushing yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 65% to break even | 35%–81% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% | 14.4rushing yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 65% to break even | 39%–78% | 5 points shortwon 60%, needs 65% | 13.1rushing yards |
| This season | 5 of 5100%needs 65% to break even | 65%–100% | 35 points betterwon 100%, needs 65% | 5rushing yards |
| Last season | 10 of 1759%needs 65% to break even | 39%–76% | 6 points shortwon 59%, needs 65% | 14.1rushing yards |
| Every game | 15 of 2268%needs 65% to break even | 51%–82% | 4 points betterwon 68%, needs 65% | 12rushing yards |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 10 at home. Tonight: TB allows 8.3 rushing yards a game to quarterbacks, the 4th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 17.3): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends quarterbacks
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 6 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 0 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 6 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 24 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | -1 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 27 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 49 | -34.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 23 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 15 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | -1 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 6 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 9 | +5.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 10 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 6 | 5 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | 3 | +11.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 8 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 2 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 40 | -25.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 8.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -125at BetMGM | 9 of 17· last season53%needs 56% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -23.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 9.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 8 of 17· last season47%needs 56% to break even5 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -26.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 10.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at BetRivers | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 53% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -28.6Not beating its price | |
| Over 14.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +154at FanDuel | 7 of 17· last season41%needs 39% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -17.4Not beating its price | |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +265at FanDuel | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 27% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 20.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +171at BetOnline | 5 of 17· last season29%needs 37% to break even3 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -21.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.