This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 64% to break even | 5%–56% | 44 points shortwon 20%, needs 64% |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 64% to break even | 19%–65% | 24 points shortwon 40%, needs 64% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 64% to break even | 39%–78% | 4 points shortwon 60%, needs 64% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 64% to break even | 5%–56% | 44 points shortwon 20%, needs 64% |
| Last season | 11 of 1669%needs 64% to break even | 48%–84% | 5 points betterwon 69%, needs 64% |
| Every game |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 2.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 2.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 receptionsTommy Tremble |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 16.5 receiving yardsTommy Tremble |
| 40%–73% |
| 7 points shortwon 57%, needs 64% |
| 4 |
| -1.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 4 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 5 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 1 | +1.5 | Won |
| -191at Kalshi |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 66% to break even |
| -25.4Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsTommy Tremble · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 40% to break even | -9.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -110at BetRivers |
| 10 of 16· last season63%needs 52% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.1Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 receiving yardsTommy Tremble · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -107at DraftKings | 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 52% to break even | -17.0Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsTommy Tremble · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -117at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 54% to break even | -23.0Not beating its price |
| Over 16.5 receiving yardsTommy Tremble · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -23.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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