This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 61% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 61% to break even | 5%–56% | 41 points shortwon 20%, needs 61% | 20receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 61% to break even | 7%–46% | 41 points shortwon 20%, needs 61% | 22.3receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 61% to break even | 17%–54% | 27 points shortwon 33%, needs 61% | 23.6receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 61% to break even | 6%–64% | 36 points shortwon 25%, needs 61% | 20receiving yards |
| Last season | 6 of 1346% |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 at home. Tonight: TB allows 145.7 receiving yards a game to wide receivers, the 14th fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 150.3). How TB defends wide receivers
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 26%–68% |
| 14 points shortwon 46%, needs 61% |
| 21.1receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 1741%needs 61% to break even | 24%–61% | 19 points shortwon 41%, needs 61% | 20.8receiving yards |
| 24 |
| -9.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 37 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 20 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 41 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 4 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 34 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 19 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 65 | -50.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 45 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 3 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 10 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 8 | +6.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| -107at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even4 of 7 at home |
| -5.4Not beating its price |
| Over 10.5 receiving yardsJohn Metchie III · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even4 of 7 at home | -8.9Not beating its price |
| Over 11.5 receiving yardsJohn Metchie III · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even4 of 7 at home | -7.9Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsJohn Metchie III · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 44% to break even4 of 7 at home | -1.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 44% to break even4 of 7 at home |
| 0.8Slight |
| Under 1.5 receptionsJohn Metchie III · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -130at FanDuel | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 57% to break even3 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -35.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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