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NFLPlayer propReceptions
John Metchie III over 1.5 receptions
Won8 of 10last 10 games · 80%
Best price+109Kalshi
Price needs47.8%wins to break even
Every game11 of 17this season and last
Trend score-2.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 48% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 48% to break even | 44%–95% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Last 10 games | 8 of 1080%needs 48% to break even | 54%–93% | 32 points betterwon 80%, needs 48% |
| Last 15 games | 11 of 1573%needs 48% to break even | 52%–87% | 25 points betterwon 73%, needs 48% |
| This season | 3 of 475%needs 48% to break even | 36%–94% | 27 points betterwon 75%, needs 48% |
| Last season | 8 of 1362%needs 48% to break even | 39%–80% | 14 points betterwon 62%, needs 48% |
| Every game | 11 of 1765%needs 48% to break even | 45%–81% | 17 points betterwon 65%, needs 48% |
Games like tonight
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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John Metchie III over 1.5 receptions1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receptions in each game against over 1.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receptions | Beat 1.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  PHI | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  DET | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  CLE | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  ATL | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 |  BUF | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 |  NE | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  NO | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  JAX | 4 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  MIA | 4 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | ATL | 4 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 |  BAL | 6 | +4.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | NE | 3 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | CLE | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  TB | 2 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  LAR | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  KC | 1 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  DAL | 0 | -1.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsJohn Metchie III · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -137at Kalshi | 5 of 13· last season38%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -36.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.