This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 53% to break even | 5%–56% | 33 points shortwon 20%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 53% to break even | 46%–83% | 13 points betterwon 67%, needs 53% |
| This season | 1 of 425%needs 53% to break even | 6%–64% | 28 points shortwon 25%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 10 of 1283%needs 53% to break even | 60%–94% | 30 points betterwon 83%, needs 53% |
| Every game | 11 of 1669%needs 53% to break even | 48%–84% | 15 points betterwon 69%, needs 53% |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 64.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 64.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 97 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 18 | +46.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 66 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 1 | 138 | -73.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 134 | -69.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 47 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 16 | +48.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 47 | +17.5 | Won | |
| Wk 15 | 60 | +4.5 | Won | |
| Wk 13 | 74 | -9.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 32 | +32.5 | Won | |
| Wk 11 | 52 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 21 | +43.5 | Won | |
| Wk 9 | 9 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Wk 8 | 36 | +28.5 | Won | |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +64.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 64.5 receiving yardsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -22.5Not beating its price | ||
| Over 67.5 receiving yardsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 53% to break even | -28.6Not beating its price | ||
| Over 69.5 receiving yardsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 50% to break even | -26.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 79.5 receiving yardsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 40% to break even | -20.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 4.5 receptionsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.7Not beating its price | |
| Scores a TDJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 5 of 10· last 10 games50%needs 37% to break even | -15.6Not beating its price | ||
| Under 5.5 receptionsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 10 of 12· last season83%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 6.5 receptionsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even | -17.7Not beating its price | ||
| Over 5.5 receptionsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +106at DraftKings | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 49% to break even | -18.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 4.5 receptionsJalen Coker · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 66% to break even | -31.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.