This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 39% to break even | 5%–56% | 19 points shortwon 20%, needs 39% | 29.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 39% to break even | 13%–56% | 9 points shortwon 30%, needs 39% | 31.4receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1436%needs 39% to break even | 19%–57% | 3 points shortwon 36%, needs 39% | 30.8receiving yards |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 39% to break even | 5%–56% | 19 points shortwon 20%, needs 39% | 29.6receiving yards |
| Last season | 4 of 944% |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 7 at home. Tonight: TB allows 56.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 11th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How TB defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 22%–70% |
| 6 points betterwon 44%, needs 39% |
| 31.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 5 of 1436%needs 39% to break even | 19%–57% | 3 points shortwon 36%, needs 39% | 30.8receiving yards |
| 36 |
| -21.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 51 | -36.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 33 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 28 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | +14.5 | Won | |
| Wk 16 | 40 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 66 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 13 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 47 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 12 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 78 | -63.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 27 | -12.5 | Lost |
| -133at DraftKings |
| 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 57% to break even5 of 7 at home |
| -13.1Not beating its price |
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -140at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 58% to break even5 of 7 at home | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -115at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -10.4Not beating its price |
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -111at BetOnline | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even5 of 7 at home | -9.8Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +107at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 48% to break even5 of 7 at home | -6.6Not beating its price |
| Over 29.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +150at BetRivers | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 40% to break even3 of 7 at home | -8.7Not beating its price |
| Over 32.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +143at BetOnline | 6 of 10· last 10 games60%needs 41% to break even3 of 7 at home | -9.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +320at BetRivers |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 24% to break even2 of 7 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at DraftKings | 7 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped50%needs 43% to break even3 of 7 at home | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 37% to break even1 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -148at Kalshi | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 60% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -24.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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