This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 41% to break even | 27%–86% | 19 points betterwon 60%, needs 41% | 29.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 41% to break even | 35%–81% | 19 points betterwon 60%, needs 41% | 31.4receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1450%needs 41% to break even | 30%–70% | 9 points betterwon 50%, needs 41% | 30.8receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 41% to break even | 27%–86% | 19 points betterwon 60%, needs 41% | 29.6receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 3 of 7 at home. Tonight: TB allows 56.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 11th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against over 32.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 32.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 0 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 4 of 944%needs 41% to break even |
| 22%–70% |
| 3 points betterwon 44%, needs 41% |
| 31.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 7 of 1450%needs 41% to break even | 30%–70% | 9 points betterwon 50%, needs 41% | 30.8receiving yards |
| 36 |
| +3.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 3 | 51 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 33 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 28 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 | 0 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 40 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 66 | +33.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 13 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 47 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 0 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 12 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 78 | +45.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 27 | -5.5 | Lost |
| +159at Kalshi |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 39% to break even2 of 7 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.0Not beating its price |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +105at Fanatics | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 49% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -109at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 52% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -27.0Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -110at BetMGM | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 52% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -27.2Not beating its price |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 57% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -30.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +320at BetRivers |
| 4 of 9· last season44%needs 24% to break even2 of 7 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at DraftKings | 7 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped50%needs 43% to break even3 of 7 at home | -12.1Not beating its price |
| Under 1.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 37% to break even1 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -150at BetMGM | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 60% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
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