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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Darren Waller over 19.5 receiving yards
Won7 of 10last 10 games · 70%
Best price-133DraftKings
Price needs57.1%wins to break even
Every game9 of 14this season and last
Trend score-13.1Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 57% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 57% to break even | 44%–95% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% | 29.6receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 57% to break even | 44%–87% | 13 points betterwon 70%, needs 57% | 31.4receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1464%needs 57% to break even | 43%–81% | 7 points betterwon 64%, needs 57% | 30.8receiving yards |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 57% to break even | 44%–95% | 23 points betterwon 80%, needs 57% | 29.6receiving yards |
| Last season | 5 of 956%needs 57% to break even | 30%–78% | 2 points shortwon 56%, needs 57% | 31.4receiving yards |
| Every game | 9 of 1464%needs 57% to break even | 43%–81% | 7 points betterwon 64%, needs 57% | 30.8receiving yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 5 of 7 at home. Tonight: TB allows 56.2 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the 11th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends tight ends
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Darren Waller over 19.5 receiving yards5 books
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against over 19.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 19.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  PHI | 0 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 |  DET | 36 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  CLE | 51 | +31.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  ATL | 33 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 |  CHI | 28 | +8.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 |  TB | 0 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  CIN | 40 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 |  PIT | 66 | +46.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 |  NYJ | 13 | -6.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 |  NO | 47 | +27.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | CLE | 0 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 |  LAC | 12 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 |  CAR | 78 | +58.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | NYJ | 27 | +7.5 | Won |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  +159at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 39% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -17.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 20.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  +105at Fanatics | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 49% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  -109at DraftKings | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 52% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -27.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 22.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  -110at BetMGM | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 52% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -27.2Not beating its price | |
| Under 24.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -131at Kalshi | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 57% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -30.4Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Darren Waller in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TDDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET |  +320at BetRivers | 4 of 9· last season44%needs 24% to break even2 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -7.2Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +135at DraftKings | 7 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped50%needs 43% to break even3 of 7 at home | -12.1Not beating its price | ||
| Under 1.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +173at Kalshi | 3 of 9· last season33%needs 37% to break even1 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -18.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -150at BetMGM | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 60% to break even4 of 7 at home | Record is last season's | -24.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.