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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Darren Waller under 20.5 receiving yards
Won4 of 9last season · 44%
Best price+100Fanatics
Price needs50.0%wins to break even
Every game5 of 14this season and last
Trend score-25.4Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 50% to break even | 5%–56% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 3 of 1030%needs 50% to break even | 13%–56% | 20 points shortwon 30%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1436%needs 50% to break even | 19%–57% | 14 points shortwon 36%, needs 50% |
| This season | 1 of 520%needs 50% to break even | 5%–56% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 4 of 944%needs 50% to break even | 22%–70% | 6 points shortwon 44%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 5 of 1436%needs 50% to break even | 19%–57% | 14 points shortwon 36%, needs 50% |
Games like tonight
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Every book's price
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Darren Waller under 20.5 receiving yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against under 20.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 20.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  PHI | 0 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  DET | 36 | -15.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  CLE | 51 | -30.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 |  ATL | 33 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  CHI | 28 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 17 |  TB | 0 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 |  CIN | 40 | -19.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 |  PIT | 66 | -45.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  NYJ | 13 | +7.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 |  NO | 47 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | CLE | 0 | +20.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  LAC | 12 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 |  CAR | 78 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | NYJ | 27 | -6.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 20.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -135at Fanatics | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 57% to break even | -13.4Not beating its price | ||
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -9.8Not beating its price | ||
| Over 22.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  -114at FanDuel | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -10.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsDarren Waller · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET |  +105at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 49% to break even | -7.0Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Darren Waller in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 14· last 15 games, 1 skipped50%needs 43% to break even | -12.2Not beating its price | ||
| Under 2.5 receptionsDarren Waller · Sun, Oct 25, 1:00 PM ET | -160at FanDuel | 5 of 9· last season56%needs 62% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.