This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 51% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 51% to break even | 44%–95% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% | 24.2completions |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 51% to break even | 27%–73% | 1 points shortwon 50%, needs 51% | 21.6completions |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 51% to break even | 22%–61% | 11 points shortwon 40%, needs 51% | 20.5completions |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 51% to break even | 44%–95% | 29 points betterwon 80%, needs 51% | 24.2completions |
| Last season |
Tonight CAR plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against TB. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 2 of 10 at home. Tonight: TB allows 23.8 completions a game to quarterbacks, the 6th most of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 21.5): an easy matchup for this bet. How TB defends quarterbacks
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Completions in each game against over 22.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Beat 22.5 by |
|---|
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scores a TD |
| 7%–37% |
| 34 points shortwon 18%, needs 51% |
| 19.1completions |
| Every game | 7 of 2232%needs 51% to break even | 18%–49% | 20 points shortwon 32%, needs 51% | 20.3completions |
| Bet |
|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 20 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 29 | +6.5 | Won | |
| Wk 3 | 26 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Wk 2 | 23 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 23 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 19 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 18 | 24 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 17 | 14 | -8.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 16 | 21 | -1.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 15 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 13 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 12 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 11 | 31 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Wk 10 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 9 | 11 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 7 | 15 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 6 | 17 | -5.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 5 | 19 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 3 | 16 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 2 | 35 | +12.5 | Won | |
| Wk 1 | 18 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| +114at Kalshi |
| 14 of 17· last season82%needs 47% to break even8 of 10 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -7.8Not beating its price |
| Under 22.5 completionsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -105at BetOnline | 14 of 17· last season82%needs 51% to break even8 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -11.5Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +750at DraftKings |
| 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 12% to break even4 of 10 at home |
| -2.8Not beating its price |
| Under 224.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 13 of 17· last season76%needs 36% to break even7 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -6.3Not beating its price |
| Under 10.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -108at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 52% to break even6 of 10 at home | -7.2Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +169at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 37% to break even2 of 10 at home | -9.3Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +265at FanDuel | 6 of 17· last season35%needs 27% to break even4 of 10 at home | Record is last season's | -9.9Not beating its price |
| Over 259.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +103at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 49% to break even3 of 10 at home | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 274.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +150at Fanatics | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 40% to break even2 of 10 at home | -11.6Not beating its price |
| Over 263.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at BetOnline | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 50% to break even3 of 10 at home | -12.0Not beating its price |
| Over 279.5 pass + rush yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +121at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 45% to break even3 of 10 at home | -12.3Not beating its price |
| Under 9.5 rushing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even5 of 10 at home | -13.0Not beating its price |
| Over 269.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | +133at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 43% to break even2 of 10 at home | -14.0Not beating its price |
| Over 253.5 passing yardsBryce Young · Tomorrow 1:00 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 at home | -14.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price. A yes-or-no bet (a draw, both teams to score, a TD) shows one same-size bar per game, green when it won.
Create a free account to see games like tonight
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.
Create a free account to see every number on a bet
Free, takes a few seconds. No card needed.