This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 40% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 40% to break even | 44%–95% | 40 points betterwon 80%, needs 40% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 40% to break even | 35%–81% | 20 points betterwon 60%, needs 40% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 40% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points betterwon 47%, needs 40% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 40% to break even | 44%–95% | 40 points betterwon 80%, needs 40% |
| Last season | 4 of 2020%needs 40% to break even | 9%–38% | 20 points shortwon 20%, needs 40% |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Rushing yards in each game against over 99.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Rushing yards | Beat 99.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 65.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsKenneth Walker III |
| Every game | 8 of 2532%needs 40% to break even | 19%–48% | 8 points shortwon 32%, needs 40% |
| Wk 6 | 128 | +28.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 177 | +77.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 70 | -29.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 117 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 173 | +73.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 135 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Wk 21 | 62 | -37.5 | Lost |
| Wk 20 | 116 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 97 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 51 | -48.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 | 100 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 17 | -82.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 | 29 | -70.5 | Lost |
| Wk 13 | 56 | -43.5 | Lost |
| Wk 12 | 71 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 67 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 67 | -32.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 | 42 | -57.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 66 | -33.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 34 | -65.5 | Lost |
| Wk 5 | 86 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 81 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 38 | -61.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 105 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 20 | -79.5 | Lost |
| +235at Bovada |
| 9 of 20· last season45%needs 30% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Under 79.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -18.6Not beating its price |
| Under 83.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -22.0Not beating its price |
| Under 84.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at FanDuel | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.8Not beating its price |
| Under 85.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -113at DraftKings | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 86.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -114at BetRivers | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -20.5Not beating its price |
| Under 89.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 58% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.3Not beating its price |
| Under 95.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -180at Bovada | 15 of 20· last season75%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.7Not beating its price |
| Under 99.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -191at Kalshi | 16 of 20· last season80%needs 66% to break even | Record is last season's | -26.8Not beating its price |
| Under 105.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -280at Bovada | 18 of 20· last season90%needs 74% to break even | Record is last season's | -29.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -154at Kalshi |
| 18 of 20· last season90%needs 61% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.0Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -8.2Not beating its price |
| Over 109.5 rush + rec yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 rush attemptsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 rush attemptsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 35% to break even | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 44% to break even | -18.0Not beating its price |
| Under 18.5 rush attemptsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -121at Kalshi | 16 of 20· last season80%needs 55% to break even | Record is last season's | -19.1Not beating its price |
| Over 18.5 rush attemptsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -19.8Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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