This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 62% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 62% to break even | 44%–95% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 62% to break even | 44%–87% | 8 points betterwon 70%, needs 62% |
| Last 15 games | 12 of 1580%needs 62% to break even | 59%–92% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 62% to break even | 44%–95% | 18 points betterwon 80%, needs 62% |
| Last season | 18 of 2090%needs 62% to break even | 74%–97% | 28 points better |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receptions in each game against under 3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 receptionsKenneth Walker III |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 105.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III |
| Every game | 22 of 2588%needs 62% to break even | 73%–95% | 26 points betterwon 88%, needs 62% |
| 2 |
| +1.5 |
| Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 6 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 2 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Wk 21 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 20 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 18 | 4 | -0.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 15 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 10 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 2 | +1.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +0.5 | Won |
| -199at Kalshi |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 67% to break even |
| -34.4Not beating its price |
| Over 3.5 receptionsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +127at DraftKings | 3 of 10· last 10 games30%needs 44% to break even | -30.7Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +205at Bovada |
| 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 33% to break even |
| -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 95.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +135at Bovada | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 40% to break even | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Over 109.5 rush + rec yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 53% to break even | -11.5Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +235at Bovada | 9 of 20· last season45%needs 30% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Kalshi | 10 of 20· last season50%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.2Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 48% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -13.8Not beating its price |
| Under 21.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 53% to break even | -14.3Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Over 85.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -111at DraftKings | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 53% to break even | -16.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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