This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 53% to break even | 27%–73% | 3 points shortwon 50%, needs 53% |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | evenwon 53%, needs 53% |
| This season | 4 of 580%needs 53% to break even | 44%–95% | 27 points betterwon 80%, needs 53% |
| Last season | 12 of 2060%needs 53% to break even | 42%–76% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% |
| Every game |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 21.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 21.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 3.5 receptionsKenneth Walker III |
| 16 of 2564%needs 53% to break even |
| 48%–78% |
| 11 points betterwon 64%, needs 53% |
| Wk 6 | 11 | +10.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 2 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 3 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 61 | -39.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | 18 | +3.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 22 | 26 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 21 | 49 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Wk 20 | 29 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 18 | 36 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Wk 17 | 6 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 64 | -42.5 | Lost |
| Wk 15 | 2 | +19.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | -1 | +22.5 | Won |
| Wk 13 | 18 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 30 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 44 | -22.5 | Lost |
| Wk 10 | 3 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 19 | +2.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | 0 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 | 3 | +18.5 | Won |
| Wk 5 | 0 | +21.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 | 29 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 | 12 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 13 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 4 | +17.5 | Won |
| -183at Kalshi |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 65% to break even |
| -27.6Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -107at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 52% to break even | -24.7Not beating its price |
| Over 21.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -115at BetMGM | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even | -26.2Not beating its price |
| Over 24.5 receiving yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 43% to break even | -17.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -160at FanDuel |
| 18 of 20· last season90%needs 62% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -3.7Not beating its price |
| Under 2.5 receptionsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +146at Kalshi | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 41% to break even | Record is last season's | -7.3Not beating its price |
| Over 105.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +205at Bovada | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 33% to break even | -7.7Not beating its price |
| Over 95.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +135at Bovada | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 43% to break even | -9.2Not beating its price |
| Over 109.5 rush + rec yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 10· last 10 games80%needs 52% to break even | -10.5Not beating its price |
| Over 99.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 40% to break even | -10.8Not beating its price |
| Under 65.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +235at Bovada | 9 of 20· last season45%needs 30% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.4Not beating its price |
| Under 15.5 rush attemptsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -12.8Not beating its price |
| Under 75.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +140at Bovada | 13 of 20· last season65%needs 42% to break even | Record is last season's | -13.4Not beating its price |
| Over 89.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 10· last 10 games70%needs 48% to break even | -13.6Not beating its price |
| Doesn't score a TDKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +105at Kalshi | 14 of 20· last season70%needs 49% to break even | Record is last season's | -15.5Not beating its price |
| Under 69.5 rushing yardsKenneth Walker III · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET | +159at Kalshi | 12 of 20· last season60%needs 39% to break even | Record is last season's | -16.2Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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