This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 53% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 22.8receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 53% to break even | 35%–81% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 18.5receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 8 of 1553%needs 53% to break even | 33%–72% | 1 points betterwon 53%, needs 53% | 18receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 53% to break even | 27%–86% | 7 points betterwon 60%, needs 53% | 22.8receiving yards |
| Last season |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 7 of 10 without Rice · 6 of 8 on the road. Tonight: SEA allows 25.5 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): an easy matchup for this bet. How SEA defends tight ends
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 17.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 17.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
This player's other props in the game.
| 9 of 1464%needs 53% to break even |
| 43%–81% |
| 12 points betterwon 64%, needs 53% |
| 12.7receiving yards |
| Every game | 12 of 1963%needs 53% to break even | 44%–79% | 11 points betterwon 63%, needs 53% | 15.4receiving yards |
| 53 |
| -35.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 4 | 17 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 39 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +12.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 30 | -12.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | +15.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 14 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 25 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 9 | +8.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +17.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 23 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 28 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 25 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 17 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +14.5 | Won |
| -140at BetMGM |
| 9 of 15· last 15 games60%needs 58% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road |
| -20.0Not beating its price |
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -120at BetRivers | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 55% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road | -21.3Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road | -20.3Not beating its price |
| Over 17.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -112at DraftKings | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 53% to break even3 of 10 without Rice · 2 of 8 on the road | -25.8Not beating its price |
| Over 19.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +124at Kalshi | 7 of 15· last 15 games47%needs 45% to break even3 of 10 without Rice · 2 of 8 on the road | -19.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +142at DraftKings |
| 8 of 14· last season57%needs 41% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 3 of 8 on the road |
| Record is last season's |
| -10.9Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 37% to break even3 of 10 without Rice · 3 of 8 on the road | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -150at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 60% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 5 of 8 on the road | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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