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NFLPlayer propReceiving yards
Noah Gray over 13.5 receiving yards
Won9 of 15last 15 games · 60%
Best price-140BetMGM
Price needs58.3%wins to break even
Every game10 of 19this season and last
Trend score-20.0Not beating its price
How often it won
This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 58% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 3 of 560%needs 58% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 22.8receiving yards |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 58% to break even | 35%–81% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 18.5receiving yards |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 58% to break even | 39%–78% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 18receiving yards |
| This season | 3 of 560%needs 58% to break even | 27%–86% | 2 points betterwon 60%, needs 58% | 22.8receiving yards |
| Last season | 7 of 1450%needs 58% to break even | 30%–70% | 8 points shortwon 50%, needs 58% | 12.7receiving yards |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 58% to break even | 35%–70% | 6 points shortwon 53%, needs 58% | 15.4receiving yards |
Games like tonight
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last, each on its own: 5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road. Tonight: SEA allows 25.5 receiving yards a game to tight ends, the fewest of 32 defenses (the average defense allows 54.2): a tough matchup for this bet. How SEA defends tight ends
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Every book's price
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Noah Gray over 13.5 receiving yards1 book
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Every game behind it
Receiving yards in each game against over 13.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 13.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 |  LAC | 53 | +39.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  LV | 17 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 |  MIA | 39 | +25.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  IND | 0 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 |  DEN | 5 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | LV | 30 | +16.5 | Won |
| Wk 17 | DEN | 2 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Wk 16 |  TEN | 0 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 14 |  HOU | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | IND | 25 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 11 | DEN | 9 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Wk 9 |  BUF | 0 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 8 |  WSH | 23 | +9.5 | Won |
| Wk 7 | LV | 28 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 6 |  DET | 25 | +11.5 | Won |
| Wk 4 |  BAL | 1 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 3 |  NYG | 17 | +3.5 | Won |
| Wk 2 |  PHI | 1 | -12.5 | Lost |
| Wk 1 | LAC | 3 | -10.5 | Lost |
Every number on this bet
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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The opposite bet
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 13.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) |  +105at BetMGM | 7 of 14· last season50%needs 49% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.8Not beating its price | |
| Under 14.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) |  -112at BetRivers | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.0Not beating its price | |
| Under 15.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) |  -114at FanDuel | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 53% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 4 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -20.3Not beating its price | |
| Under 17.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) |  -111at BetOnline | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 53% to break even7 of 10 without Rice · 6 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -13.5Not beating its price | |
| Under 19.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) |  -175at Kalshi | 9 of 14· last season64%needs 64% to break even7 of 10 without Rice · 6 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -22.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
More on Noah Gray in this game
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) |  +142at DraftKings | 8 of 14· last season57%needs 41% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 3 of 8 on the road | Record is last season's | -10.9Not beating its price | |
| Over 2.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 37% to break even3 of 10 without Rice · 3 of 8 on the road | -18.3Not beating its price | ||
| Over 1.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Tomorrow 8:20 PM ETWithout Rice (WR) | -150at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 60% to break even5 of 10 without Rice · 5 of 8 on the road | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.