This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 54% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 2 of 540%needs 54% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last 10 games | 5 of 1050%needs 54% to break even | 27%–73% | 4 points shortwon 50%, needs 54% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 54% to break even | 28%–67% | 7 points shortwon 47%, needs 54% |
| This season | 2 of 540%needs 54% to break even | 14%–73% | 14 points shortwon 40%, needs 54% |
| Last season | 8 of 1457%needs 54% to break even | 36%–76% | 3 points betterwon 57%, needs 54% |
| Every game |
Tonight KC plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against SEA. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Receiving yards in each game against under 14.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Receiving yards | Beat 14.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Wk 6 | 53 | -38.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 4 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 14.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray |
This player's other props in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 1.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ET |
| 35%–70% |
| 1 points shortwon 53%, needs 54% |
| 17 |
| -2.5 |
| Lost |
| Wk 3 | 39 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 5 | +9.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Wk 18 | 30 | -15.5 | Lost | |
| Wk 17 | 2 | +12.5 | Won |
| Wk 16 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 14 | 14 | +0.5 | Won |
| Wk 12 | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 11 | 9 | +5.5 | Won |
| Wk 9 | 0 | +14.5 | Won |
| Wk 8 | 23 | -8.5 | Lost |
| Wk 7 | 28 | -13.5 | Lost |
| Wk 6 | 25 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Wk 4 | 1 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 3 | 17 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Wk 2 | 1 | +13.5 | Won |
| Wk 1 | 3 | +11.5 | Won |
| -111at BetMGM |
| 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even |
| -19.7Not beating its price |
| Over 15.5 receiving yardsNoah Gray · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ETKelce questionable: next up at TE | -114at FanDuel | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 53% to break even | -20.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| +129at Kalshi |
| 8 of 14· last season57%needs 44% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -12.7Not beating its price |
| Over 2.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ETKelce questionable: next up at TE | +173at Kalshi | 4 of 10· last 10 games40%needs 37% to break even | -18.3Not beating its price |
| Over 1.5 receptionsNoah Gray · Sun, Oct 25, 8:20 PM ETKelce questionable: next up at TE | -150at BetMGM | 8 of 15· last 15 games53%needs 60% to break even | -25.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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