This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 34% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 34% to break even | 5%–56% | 14 points shortwon 20%, needs 34% | 47.8total points |
| Last 10 games | 4 of 1040%needs 34% to break even | 19%–65% | 6 points betterwon 40%, needs 34% | 53.2total points |
| Last 15 games | 6 of 1540%needs 34% to break even | 22%–61% | 6 points betterwon 40%, needs 34% | 51.4total points |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 34% to break even | 3%–45% | 19 points shortwon 14%, needs 34% | 45.6total points |
| Last season |
Tonight LIB plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against FIU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 4 of 9 at home.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against over 54.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 39.5 game total, LIB games |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 30.5 team total |
| 29%–71% |
| 16 points betterwon 50%, needs 34% |
| 52.1total points |
| Every game | 7 of 1937%needs 34% to break even | 21%–56% | 3 points betterwon 37%, needs 34% | 49.7total points |
| 40 |
| -14.5 |
| Lost |
| Oct 8 | 38 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Oct 2 | 44 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 24 | 51 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 66 | +11.5 | Won |
| Sep 12 | 47 | -7.5 | Lost |
| Sep 5 | 33 | -21.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | 90 | +35.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | 62 | +7.5 | Won |
| Nov 15 | 61 | +6.5 | Won |
| Nov 8 | 38 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 89 | +34.5 | Won |
| Oct 14 | 57 | +2.5 | Won |
| Oct 8 | 27 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 28 | -26.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 44 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 36 | -18.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | JVST | 58 | +3.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 35 | -19.5 | Lost |
| +181at Kalshi |
| 5 of 12· last season42%needs 36% to break even3 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -17.9Not beating its price |
| Under 42.5 game total, LIB gamesLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 44% to break even3 of 9 at home | -20.0Not beating its price |
| Under 43.5 game total, LIB gamesLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +114at Kalshi | 6 of 15· last 15 games40%needs 47% to break even3 of 9 at home | -22.5Not beating its price |
| Under 44.5 game total, LIB gamesLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 50% to break even4 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -18.5Not beating its price |
| Under 45.5 game total, LIB gamesLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 54% to break even4 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -21.6Not beating its price |
| Under 46.5 game total, LIB gamesLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 4 of 7· this season57%needs 56% to break even4 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -23.2Not beating its price |
| Under 47.5 game total, LIB gamesLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 7· this season71%needs 58% to break even5 of 9 at home | Record is this season's | -20.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| -116at Kalshi |
| 10 of 12· last season83%needs 54% to break even5 of 9 at home |
| Record is last season's |
| -16.6Not beating its price |
| LIB -14.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -103at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 51% to break even4 of 9 at home | -17.1Not beating its price |
| LIB -21.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +181at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 36% to break even3 of 9 at home | -17.6Not beating its price |
| Over 27.5 team totalLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 64% to break even6 of 9 at home | -18.6Not beating its price |
| LIB -20.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 3 of 5· last 5 games60%needs 40% to break even4 of 9 at home | -20.1Not beating its price |
| LIB -13.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -126at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 56% to break even4 of 9 at home | -21.0Not beating its price |
| Under 27.5 team totalLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +124at Kalshi | 7 of 12· last season58%needs 45% to break even3 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | -21.2Not beating its price |
| LIB -11.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -137at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 58% to break even4 of 9 at home | -22.7Not beating its price |
| LIB -16.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 50% to break even4 of 9 at home | -22.7Not beating its price |
| Over 34.5 team totalLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 40% to break even4 of 9 at home | -23.0Not beating its price |
| Over 30.5 team totalLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 4 of 5· last 5 games80%needs 54% to break even4 of 9 at home | -23.8Not beating its price |
| LIB -10.5 spreadLiberty · Sat, Oct 31, 3:30 PM ET | -161at Kalshi | 5 of 5· last 5 games100%needs 62% to break even4 of 9 at home | -23.9Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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