This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price | Average |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 50% to break even | 44%–95% | 30 points betterwon 80%, needs 50% | won by 8points |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 50% to break even | 44%–87% | 20 points betterwon 70%, needs 50% | won by 7.8points |
| Last 15 games | 10 of 1567%needs 50% to break even | 46%–83% | 17 points betterwon 67%, needs 50% | won by 4.9points |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 50% to break even | 41%–90% | 21 points betterwon 71%, needs 50% | won by 6.7points |
| Last season | 9 of 1369%needs 50% to break even | 46%–85% | 19 points betterwon 69%, needs 50% | won by 7points |
| Every game | 14 of 2070%needs 50% to break even | 52%–84% | 20 points betterwon 70%, needs 50% | won by 6.9points |
Tonight FRES plays at home, as the underdog, after a loss, against ORST. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
This season and last: 6 of 9 at home.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Margin in each game against FRES +6.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Margin | Beat -6.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | -3 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | -7 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 3 | 20 | +26.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | 14 | +20.5 | Won | |
| Sep 19 | 16 | +22.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | 46 | +52.5 | Won | |
| Sep 4 | -39 | -32.5 | Lost | |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 27 | 15 | +21.5 | Won | |
| Nov 29 | 27 | +33.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -11 | -4.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 21 | +27.5 | Won | |
| Nov 1 | 23 | +29.5 | Won | |
| Oct 25 | -23 | -16.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | -28 | -21.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | 3 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Sep 20 | 2 | +8.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | 49 | +55.5 | Won | |
| Sep 6 | 9 | +15.5 | Won | |
| Aug 30 | 28 | +34.5 | Won | |
| Aug 23 | -24 | -17.5 | Lost | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FRES to win moneylineFresno State Bulldogs · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET | +218at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 31% to break even6 of 9 at home | Record is last season's | 3.9Good | |
| Under 56.5 game total, FRES gamesFresno State Bulldogs · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET | -110at FanDuel | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 52% to break even6 of 9 at home | -3.1Not beating its price | ||
| Over 56.5 game total, FRES gamesFresno State Bulldogs · Sat, Oct 31, 11:00 PM ET | -110at FanDuel | 2 of 5· last 5 games40%needs 52% to break even3 of 9 at home | -34.3Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. A thin upright line marks where this season starts. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.