This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 41% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 41% to break even | 44%–95% | 39 points betterwon 80%, needs 41% |
| Last 10 games | 7 of 1070%needs 41% to break even | 44%–87% | 29 points betterwon 70%, needs 41% |
| Last 15 games | 7 of 1547%needs 41% to break even | 28%–67% | 6 points betterwon 47%, needs 41% |
| This season | 5 of 771%needs 41% to break even | 41%–90% | 31 points betterwon 71%, needs 41% |
| Last season | 4 of 1233%needs 41% to break even | 16%–57% | 7 points shortwon 33%, needs 41% |
| Every game | 9 of 1947%needs 41% to break even | 30%–65% | 7 points betterwon 47%, needs 41% |
Tonight TLSA plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against ARMY. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
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Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
1H margin in each game against tlsa 1h -3.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | 1H margin | Beat 3.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 4 | +0.5 | Won | |
| Oct 10 | 6 | +2.5 | Won | |
| Oct 1 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Sep 26 | -16 | -19.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 14 | +10.5 | Won | |
| Sep 12 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 5 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Last season | ||||
| Nov 29 | 7 | +3.5 | Won | |
| Nov 22 | -8 | -11.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 15 | 17 | +13.5 | Won | |
| Nov 8 | -25 | -28.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 25 | 3 | -0.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 16 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 4 | -21 | -24.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 27 | -10 | -13.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 19 | 13 | +9.5 | Won | |
| Sep 13 | -4 | -7.5 | Lost | |
| Sep 6 | -3 | -6.5 | Lost | |
| Aug 30 | 10 | +6.5 | Won | |
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
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This team's other lines in the game.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.