This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 44% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 4 of 580%needs 44% to break even | 44%–95% | 36 points betterwon 80%, needs 44% |
| Last 10 games | 6 of 1060%needs 44% to break even | 35%–81% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| Last 15 games | 9 of 1560%needs 44% to break even | 39%–78% | 16 points betterwon 60%, needs 44% |
| This season | 5 of 683%needs 44% to break even | 50%–96% | 40 points betterwon 83%, needs 44% |
| Last season | 5 of 1338%needs 44% to break even | 20%–61% | 5 points shortwon 38%, needs 44% |
| Every game | 10 of 1953%needs 44% to break even | 35%–70% | 9 points betterwon 53%, needs 44% |
Tonight MICH plays at home, as the underdog, after a win, against IU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 40.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 40.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 39 | +1.5 | Won | |
| Oct 3 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 39.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MICH +3.5 1st half spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
| 34 |
| +6.5 |
| Won |
| Sep 26 | 39 | +1.5 | Won |
| Sep 19 | 69 | -28.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 27 | +13.5 | Won |
| Sep 5 | 25 | +15.5 | Won |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 31 | 68 | -27.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 36 | +4.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 65 | -24.5 | Lost |
| Nov 15 | 46 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Nov 1 | 37 | +3.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 51 | -10.5 | Lost |
| Oct 18 | 31 | +9.5 | Won |
| Oct 11 | 44 | -3.5 | Lost |
| Oct 4 | 34 | +6.5 | Won |
| Sep 20 | 57 | -16.5 | Lost |
| Sep 13 | 66 | -25.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 37 | +3.5 | Won |
| Aug 30 | 51 | -10.5 | Lost |
| 8 of 13· last season62%needs 61% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -33.0Not beating its price |
| Over 40.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -154at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 61% to break even | Record is last season's | -32.5Not beating its price |
| Over 41.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | NV-104at Novig | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 51% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.8Not beating its price |
| Over 42.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -107at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 52% to break even | Record is last season's | -25.4Not beating its price |
| Over 43.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +101at Kalshi | 8 of 13· last season62%needs 50% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.9Not beating its price |
| Over 44.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +109at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 48% to break even | Record is last season's | -24.5Not beating its price |
| Over 45.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +129at Kalshi | 7 of 13· last season54%needs 44% to break even | Record is last season's | -21.2Not beating its price |
| Over 46.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +134at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 43% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.5Not beating its price |
| Over 49.5 game total, MICH gamesMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +189at Kalshi | 6 of 13· last season46%needs 35% to break even | Record is last season's | -17.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 6 of 6· this season100%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| 10.1Strong |
| MICH +0.5 1st half spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +149at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 40% to break even | 9.9Strong |
| MICH +6.5 spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +116at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 46% to break even | Record is this season's | 9.1Strong |
| MICH +2.5 1st half spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +137at Polymarket | 12 of 15· last 15 games80%needs 42% to break even | 8.3Strong |
| MICH to win moneylineMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +250at Hard Rock | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 29% to break even | Record is last season's | 8.1Strong |
| MICH +7 spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | PX+103at ProphetX | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 49% to break even | Record is this season's | 6.7Good |
| MICH +3.5 spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +152at Kalshi | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 40% to break even | 6.1Good |
| MICH +4.5 1st half spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -129at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 56% to break even | Record is this season's | 5.6Good |
| MICH +4.5 spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +143at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 41% to break even | 4.9Good |
| MICH +5.5 1st half spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -139at Polymarket | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 58% to break even | Record is this season's | 4.2Good |
| MICH +7.5 spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -116at Kalshi | 6 of 6· this season100%needs 54% to break even | Record is this season's | 3.2Good |
| MICH +5.5 spreadMichigan Wolverines · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | +131at Polymarket | 11 of 15· last 15 games73%needs 43% to break even | 3.2Good |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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