This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 50% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
| Games | Record | Likely win rate | Compared with the price |
|---|---|---|---|
| Last 5 games | 1 of 520%needs 50% to break even | 5%–56% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 10 games | 2 of 1020%needs 50% to break even | 7%–46% | 30 points shortwon 20%, needs 50% |
| Last 15 games | 5 of 1533%needs 50% to break even | 17%–54% | 17 points shortwon 33%, needs 50% |
| This season | 1 of 714%needs 50% to break even | 3%–45% | 36 points shortwon 14%, needs 50% |
| Last season | 6 of 1346%needs 50% to break even | 26%–68% | 4 points shortwon 46%, needs 50% |
| Every game | 7 of 2035%needs 50% to break even | 20%–53% | 15 points shortwon 35%, needs 50% |
Tonight TOL plays at home, as the favorite, after a win, against WMU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Click a price to open the bet at that book, or a book's name below for everywhere it has the best price.
Best price at the top. Each row shows what a winning $100 bet pays compared with it.
Total points in each game against under 45.5, newest first. Ties (pushes) don't count toward the record.
| Date | Opponent | Total points | Beat 45.5 by | Bet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| This season | ||||
| Oct 17 | 48 | -2.5 | Lost | |
| Oct 10 | ||||
The same bet at other numbers, surest at the top, replayed over the same games. Where a book offers the number, its best price is beside it.
The numbers the books are posting on the other side.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 45.5 game total, TOL gamesToledo Rockets · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
This team's other lines in the game.
| Bet | Best price | How often it won | Last 10 games | Trend score | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOL -3.5 spreadToledo Rockets · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET |
| 31 |
| +14.5 |
| Won |
| Oct 3 | 63 | -17.5 | Lost |
| Sep 26 | 57 | -11.5 | Lost |
| Sep 19 | 97 | -51.5 | Lost |
| Sep 12 | 73 | -27.5 | Lost |
| Sep 4 | 50 | -4.5 | Lost |
| Last season | ||||
| Dec 23 | 49 | -3.5 | Lost | |
| Nov 29 | 24 | +21.5 | Won |
| Nov 22 | 47 | -1.5 | Lost |
| Nov 12 | 27 | +18.5 | Won |
| Nov 5 | 45 | +0.5 | Won |
| Oct 25 | 35 | +10.5 | Won |
| Oct 18 | 55 | -9.5 | Lost |
| Oct 11 | 51 | -5.5 | Lost |
| Sep 27 | 48 | -2.5 | Lost |
| Sep 20 | 27 | +18.5 | Won |
| Sep 13 | 60 | -14.5 | Lost |
| Sep 6 | 66 | -20.5 | Lost |
| Aug 30 | 40 | +5.5 | Won |
| 6 of 7· this season86%needs 51% to break even |
| Record is this season's |
| -4.6Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
| 8 of 13· last season62%needs 49% to break even |
| Record is last season's |
| -11.6Not beating its price |
| TOL to win moneylineToledo Rockets · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | PX-152at ProphetX | 10 of 15· last 15 games67%needs 60% to break even | -14.3Not beating its price |
| TOL -0.5 1st half spreadToledo Rockets · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -112at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 53% to break even | Record is last season's | -14.5Not beating its price |
| TOL +0.5 1st half spreadToledo Rockets · Sat, Oct 24, 12:00 PM ET | -175at Kalshi | 9 of 13· last season69%needs 64% to break even | Record is last season's | -23.1Not beating its price |
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
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