This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 30% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
Games
Record
Likely win rate
Compared with the price
Last 5 games
3 of 560%needs 30% to break even
27%–86%
30 points betterwon 60%, needs 30%
Last 10 games
3 of 1030%needs 30% to break even
13%–56%
evenwon 30%, needs 30%
Last 15 games
4 of 1527%needs 30% to break even
13%–48%
3 points shortwon 27%, needs 30%
This season
3 of 743%needs 30% to break even
19%–71%
13 points betterwon 43%, needs 30%
Last season
1 of 128%needs 30% to break even
2%–30%
22 points shortwon 8%, needs 30%
Every game
4 of 1921%needs 30% to break even
10%–40%
9 points shortwon 21%, needs 30%
Games like tonight
Tonight WVU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TCU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.