This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 39% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
Games
Record
Likely win rate
Compared with the price
Last 5 games
5 of 5100%needs 39% to break even
65%–100%
61 points betterwon 100%, needs 39%
Last 10 games
5 of 1050%needs 39% to break even
27%–73%
11 points betterwon 50%, needs 39%
Last 15 games
6 of 1540%needs 39% to break even
22%–61%
1 points betterwon 40%, needs 39%
This season
5 of 771%needs 39% to break even
41%–90%
32 points betterwon 71%, needs 39%
Last season
1 of 128%needs 39% to break even
2%–30%
31 points shortwon 8%, needs 39%
Every game
6 of 1932%needs 39% to break even
17%–50%
8 points shortwon 32%, needs 39%
Games like tonight
Tonight WVU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TCU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.