This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 55% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
Games
Record
Likely win rate
Compared with the price
Last 5 games
5 of 5100%needs 55% to break even
65%–100%
45 points betterwon 100%, needs 55%
Last 10 games
6 of 1060%needs 55% to break even
35%–81%
5 points betterwon 60%, needs 55%
Last 15 games
10 of 1567%needs 55% to break even
46%–83%
12 points betterwon 67%, needs 55%
This season
6 of 786%needs 55% to break even
55%–97%
31 points betterwon 86%, needs 55%
Last season
4 of 1233%needs 55% to break even
16%–57%
21 points shortwon 33%, needs 55%
Every game
10 of 1953%needs 55% to break even
35%–70%
2 points shortwon 53%, needs 55%
Games like tonight
Tonight WVU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TCU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.