This exact bet replayed over each stretch of recent games, against the 64% the best price needs to break even. A short run proves less than a long one: “likely win rate” is the range its true rate probably sits in.
Games
Record
Likely win rate
Compared with the price
Last 5 games
5 of 5100%needs 64% to break even
65%–100%
36 points betterwon 100%, needs 64%
Last 10 games
7 of 1070%needs 64% to break even
44%–87%
6 points betterwon 70%, needs 64%
Last 15 games
11 of 1573%needs 64% to break even
52%–87%
9 points betterwon 73%, needs 64%
This season
7 of 7100%needs 64% to break even
72%–100%
36 points betterwon 100%, needs 64%
Last season
5 of 1242%needs 64% to break even
22%–64%
23 points shortwon 42%, needs 64%
Every game
12 of 1963%needs 64% to break even
44%–79%
1 points shortwon 63%, needs 64%
Games like tonight
Tonight WVU plays on the road, as the underdog, after a win, against TCU. Tap any of these to count only past games that looked the same; the record and every number below follow.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.
Last 10 games, oldest first: each bar is that game's result (points, yards, margin), the dashed line is today's number. Green won, red lost, grey tied; point at a bar for that game. Trend score: how far the bet has beaten its price, after discounting short runs. Details opens every stretch, the same bet at other numbers, and every book's price.